When the Villain Had a Flag
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What does it mean that ‘the villain had a flag’?
It captures the way that geopolitical conflicts are often narrated through the frame of national identity — the villain is a nation, a flag, a collective rather than specific actors making specific choices for specific reasons. This framing is emotionally comprehensible but analytically limiting: it produces narratives that are easy to communicate and difficult to think with, because they collapse the complexity of political economy, historical grievance, institutional failure, and individual choice into a single moral category. Foresight work requires getting beneath the flag — understanding the actual drivers of the behaviour, which is far more useful for anticipating what comes next.
Q: How does geopolitical storytelling shape what futures seem possible or plausible?
Significantly. The futures that people regard as possible are constrained by the stories they have been told about how the world works. If the dominant story is one of inevitable civilisational conflict, the futures that seem plausible are those consistent with that story. If the dominant story is one of pragmatic self-interest leading to manageable competition, different futures seem plausible. Foresight practice includes deliberately examining the stories that are shaping the scenarios, not just the scenarios themselves, because the stories often have more influence on strategic decisions than the evidence does.
Q: What is the most useful mental model for thinking about geopolitical futures?
One that distinguishes between the structural forces — demographic, economic, resource, technological — that shape the range of possible outcomes, and the specific choices made by specific actors within those structures. Structural forces constrain and enable; they do not determine. The choices of individual leaders, institutions, and populations within those constraints produce the specific futures that actually arrive. This model resists both fatalism (the structure determines everything) and great-man theory (individual choices determine everything) and produces a more accurate understanding of where genuine agency lies in shaping geopolitical outcomes.
Q: Can Morris Misel speak on geopolitical foresight, strategic narrative, and how to think clearly about global power and conflict for our executive, policy, or board audience?
Yes. Geopolitical foresight and strategic narrative are core keynote topics for executive, policy, and board audiences. Book at morrismisel.com.