Tomorrow’s energy today | Radio 3 Hong Kong & ABC WideBay
Science Fiction is full of homes, machines, cars, robots and flying saucers that are fueled by free utterly renewable secret sauce fuels none more coveted than the cult film Back to the Future’s 1.21 gigawatts supplied by a plutonium-powered nuclear reactor and, with the absence of plutonium, a bolt of lightning channeled directly into the flux capacitor by a long pole and hook, or failing that by house rubbish.
We’re not quite there yet with these exotic fuels, but late last week we took what could be a giant step towards relatively inexpensive, readily available, make it yourself energy with Tesla’s Powerwall announcement, a home battery that will save solar energy, captured from your own solar panels, into a relatively small box mounted on your external wall and distribute it around your home as and when you need it.
This is part of a move away from relying on the electricity grid, and despite Elon Musk’s ability to gather media and hype at the speed of a PT Barnum, this is a step in the right direction.
There has been a notion around that by 2030 we could be 100% fueled by solar energy, but it’s always seemed impossible given that currently we’re just nudging 1% of all fuel supplied coming from the sun.
But, given the drop in prices of solar panels, they’re ability to capture and store better than ever, new technologies around this space and now with Tesla’s new home battery, costing sub $7,000 (and its imminent competitors), some are saying that using Moore’s Law theory, we could only be six doublings way from 100% solar energy use.
My take, we need more energy evangelists and new innovations like Elon and Tesla and although this technology may not be the absolute answer it is a clear fork in the road of energy conversation and to Hong Kong’s Phil Whelan’s questions of will the large existing energy and fuel providers stand idly by and let this happen, my answer came in two parts.
Firstly they’re not standing idly by, they are investing and inventing, but in their hearts of hearts perhaps would like the journey to an alternate fuel to slow down just a bit so they can finish using their current stores and infrastructure of fossil and other fuels.
Secondly it’s no longer up to them, disruption has arrived and non industry players are snapping at their heels including Google, Apple and many others who are all on a mad hunt to extend battery life indefinitely for small tech devices and once they’ve cracked it for our small devices (and they will within the next few years), it’s only a small innovation skip and a jump to charging big devices like our homes, cars, factories and airplanes.
Have a listen now and then share your thoughts on what fuel(s) you think we may be using in the future.
David Dowsett – ABC WideBay (5 mins 47 secs)
Phil Whelan – Radio 3 Hong Kong (11 mins 33 secs)
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What were the most significant energy transition signals in 2015 that have since proven correct?
The 2015 energy transition signals that have proven most consequential include: the solar cost reduction curve (following Swanson’s Law, solar PV module costs declined approximately 90% over the decade 2010-2020, making solar the cheapest new electricity generation in most markets by 2020); the battery storage cost reduction trajectory (lithium-ion battery costs declined approximately 97% between 1991 and 2024, with the steepest reductions in the decade from 2015); the electric vehicle adoption curve (global EV sales have grown from approximately 500,000 in 2015 to over 14 million in 2023, with further growth expected); and the speed of renewable energy deployment (global renewable capacity additions accelerated every year through the decade, with 2023 adding more renewable capacity than in any previous year). The signal in 2015 was clear; the pace of change exceeded most forecasts.
Q: What does the energy transition mean for households and small businesses in Australia specifically?
For Australian households and small businesses, the energy transition has produced several Immediate Futures™: rooftop solar has become economically compelling for most owner-occupiers with suitable roofs — payback periods under 5 years are common — with home battery storage following on a similar cost reduction trajectory; the combination of solar, battery storage, and EV creates the potential for households to significantly reduce or eliminate grid electricity costs while potentially earning from energy export; businesses with energy-intensive operations (manufacturing, cold chain, data centres) face both the risk of increasing grid electricity costs and the opportunity of on-site renewable generation reducing that exposure; and the regulatory and grid infrastructure changes required to accommodate distributed generation are creating both opportunities and uncertainty for energy market participants. The households and businesses that will benefit most are those actively positioning now rather than waiting for costs to fall further.
Q: What are the second-order Ripple Effects™ of the energy transition that receive less attention?
The second-order Ripple Effects™ of the energy transition include: the economic transformation of regions with fossil fuel production and export dependence — coal mining communities, gas-producing regions, and the industrial supply chains that serve fossil fuel operations face structural change that is already underway; the critical minerals requirement of renewable energy and battery technology creating new resource demand (lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper) with their own supply chain and geopolitical implications; the grid stability challenges created by high penetration of variable renewable generation requiring new solutions in storage, transmission, demand response, and potentially new forms of dispatchable generation; and the energy access and equity question — the households and communities that most need lower energy costs (lower-income, renters, those in poorly insulated housing) are often least positioned to access rooftop solar and battery storage benefits.
Q: How can I book Morris Misel for a energy transition, climate and business, or infrastructure futures keynote?
Contact the booking team at morrismisel.com/event-organisers.
Science Fiction is full of homes, machines, cars, robots and flying saucers that are fueled by free utterly renewable secret sauce fuels none more coveted than the cult film Back to the Future’s 1.21 gigawatts supplied by a plutonium-powered nuclear reactor and, with the absence .
When signals like Tomorrow’s energy emerge, organisations that engage early have the advantage of choosing their response rather than reacting to events. That gap between those who prepared and those who did not is where competitive positioning is actually made or lost.
The most important question is not whether Tomorrow’s energy will matter, but how quickly it will matter in your specific context. Leaders benefit most from mapping the ripple effects early — not just the direct impact but the second and third-order consequences that arrive later and hit harder. That is the practical work of foresight.
