Looking back at 2015 and forward to 2016 trends / ABC Far North, Austereo
One thing I can accurately predict is that around this time of year every year requests come in for a nostalgic look at what we achieved this year and a predictive look at what next year’s trends may bring and this was the theme of my segment this week with Phil Staley of ABC Far North.
2015 was a watershed year in many ways, and for me some of the more obscure but significant technology advances included:
Tesla’s recent software upgrade turning all of it’s on road cars into semi autonomous hands free vehicles, important because it speaks to the ability to significantly change the function and use of an everyday motor vehicle simply through a software upgrade and for the first significant push into driverless cars.
Jeff Bazos’s (Amazon founder) announced recently that he had sent a rocket into orbit and landed it safely and accurately back on earth – a feat that has no rival and speaks volumes to the possibilities of future space exploration, but also to the dogged determination that we have within us as he tells of the 5-year-old he once was dreaming about going into space and the man he has become being able to make that dream come true.
Drones have come into our lives and are here to stay. We have seen them as reporters, as scouts, as fire wardens, as bomb disposal experts, as wedding photographers and the list goes on. Legislation has been talked about. Australia Post, Amazon, Pizza Hut and many others want to employ them as couriers and drones have only begun to look for work.
Windows 10 launched this year and we could argue its good and bad, but my take is its difference, it didn’t come in a box and for many existing users was free. How different this was to the fanfare and circus of old. The many disks, the inferior software with few upgrades and the thoughts of old that not to long from now you would have to go and do it all again. The freshness of this offering, the price points and its delivery and installation all speak volumes about a changed business landscape, pricing models and marketplace.
2016 will bring it with farewells of old tech and old business models as well as new opportunities and horizons.
Augmented (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) are set to boom in the first half of next year with all major manufacturers promising new VR products and most under $US400. This may take a while to show its true potential, but it is definitely a new frontier that’s here to stay.
Ambient technology and device consolidation will start its journey next year, as technology becomes as ordinary as electricity and gas, and becomes more about what it can do for me rather than the fact it exists. In this same thought devices will begin to become agnostic with users switching often from one to the other, making choices based on situation and purpose, rather than on wow factor.
Personal Assistants, in the form of robots, that listen to you and talk back will begin their journey to purpose next year with releases like Jibo hitting our retail stores for around the $US2,000 mark. These in the early stages will read emails and texts, announce callers and generally interact with us, they are not yet the robots of our science fiction dreams, but they are the first line in an evolution that may one day bring us the robot butler, we supposedly can’t live without.
These were just some of our recent past and near future, but have a listen now to the rest and then add your thoughts to the list of 2015 and 2016.
ABC Far North – Phil Staley- Monday 7th December – (12 minutes 36 seconds)
Austereo WA – Anthony Tilley – Monday 14th December 2015 – (4 minutes 16 seconds)
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What were the most significant signals that defined 2015 and shaped the trajectory into 2016?
The defining signals of 2015 included: the mainstream arrival of the sharing economy — Uber and Airbnb moved from disruption stories to operational realities affecting taxi industries and hotel sectors in every major city; the escalation of cyber security incidents as a boardroom issue, with major breaches (Ashley Madison, Office of Personnel Management) making data breach a front-page story rather than a technical footnote; the refugee and migration crisis reaching European scale and entering mainstream political debate in Australia; the Paris climate agreement representing the first universal climate commitment; and the acceleration of AI capability with the first public demonstrations of deep learning performance at human level in specific tasks (image recognition, game play). Each of these was a signal in 2014 that became a reality in 2015.
Q: What does the year-crossing analysis reveal about how to read signals and prepare for what is arriving?
Year-crossing analysis reveals a consistent pattern: the futures that arrive in any given year were visible as signals in the preceding two to three years; the organisations and individuals who prepared for the sharing economy’s disruption were better positioned than those who dismissed it as a passing trend; and the value of foresight is not in predicting which specific signals will become dominant futures but in maintaining the breadth of awareness that ensures no important signal is missed entirely. The Immediate Futures™ framing — focusing on what is already arriving and needs attention now — is more actionable than long-horizon speculation because it grounds preparation in observable evidence rather than prediction. What was an Immediate Future in 2015 became the present in 2016; what is an Immediate Future in 2026 will be the present by 2027.
Q: What does the 2015-to-2016 transition reveal about organisational readiness for change?
The 2015-to-2016 transition is a useful readiness case study: the organisations that struggled most in 2016 were those that had treated 2015’s disruption signals as temporary anomalies rather than structural shifts; the ride-sharing disruption was not a surprise to anyone paying attention, yet many taxi operators were caught unprepared because the signals were available but not acted upon; and the PTFA™ dynamic — where past experience of overhyped technology predictions created scepticism about genuine signals — explains much of the organisational unreadiness. Reading signals well requires distinguishing between genuine structural shifts and temporary noise, which requires both breadth of awareness and disciplined analysis rather than either pure optimism or pure scepticism about change.
Q: How can I book Morris Misel for a trend analysis, annual outlook, or strategic foresight keynote?
Contact the booking team at morrismisel.com/event-organisers.
One thing I can accurately predict is that around this time of year every year requests come in for a nostalgic look at what we achieved this year and a predictive look at what next year’s trends may bring and this was the theme of my segment this week with Phil Staley of ABC Far.
The window between a signal arriving and it demanding a response is shortening. Looking back at 2015 and forward to 2016 trends / ABC is already shaping strategy conversations in forward-looking organisations. Treating it as a future concern rather than a present one builds a preparedness gap that will have to be closed under pressure.
The most important question is not whether Looking back at 2015 and forward to 2016 trends / ABC will matter, but how quickly it will matter in your specific context. Leaders benefit most from mapping the ripple effects early — not just the direct impact but the second and third-order consequences that arrive later and hit harder. That is the practical work of foresight.
