Back in December 2015 I told Phil Staley on ABC Far North that “one thing I can accurately predict” is that around this time every year, people start asking for a look back at this year and a look ahead at the next.

It’s still true, and a year later, on 6PR with Chrissy Morrissy, I went back through my list for 2016 and was happy to say I’d got 3 for 3.

They were mostly gadgets in those days, though, and when I look back over twenty years of these, my calls about people and business conditions have held up far better than my calls about gadgets and timing.

So this year my read of what’s coming is mostly about people and conditions, and it’s in the back of my year-end guide, Before the Year Turns, as ten ripples for 2027.

Every Monday in October I shared a first glimpse from the guide, in posts like Some of 2027 Is Already Sitting in Your Diary and Most of Us Stop at the First Ripple.

These are four of those ripples, the ones I’d plan next year around, and where one is my own judgement I’ll tell you it’s my best read. Then come the two worksheets I’d use to find your own.

Key points

• My best read is that we start climbing out of the funk, the low and gloomy mood we’ve carried since COVID, towards the end of 2027, and that it takes the best part of 2028 to clear.
• The Reserve Bank put the cash rate up to 4.85% on 3 November and expects inflation to stay high through much of 2027, so the call on the economy is yours to make.
• My read is that machines and cuts to middle management are thinning out the people who train juniors, and the number of people starting a trade fell 4.2% in the year to 31 December 2025.
• From 31 March 2027 banks, telcos and digital platforms take on most of their new duties to prevent scams, and my best read is that by 2028 trust is something you’ll be asked to show.
• To find your own, look for what’s already started that hasn’t reached you yet, then test your biggest decisions against three possible years.

1. We start climbing out of the funk late in 2027

The world’s in a funk, a low and gloomy mood, and I wrote about it in August.

On the AI Business Flywheel podcast in October I said we’ve been going through it “ever since COVID”.

Ipsos Global Trends figures, from the end of September, show where the hope went. Only 25% of people feel optimistic about the world and 36% about their country, while 55% feel optimistic about themselves and their families.

So people still have hope, they just keep it a lot closer to home, for themselves and the people they love.

Business has felt it too. NAB’s August survey found business conditions negative for the first time in six years, and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index was reported at 84.4 in September, where anything under 100 means the pessimists outnumber the optimists.

My best read is that we start climbing out of it towards the end of 2027.

Then it’ll most likely take the best part of 2028 to clear, before we’re back somewhere steadier and a bit calmer, where we feel more at home.

It won’t happen overnight. On the podcast I said it turns once enough people say, “look I just can’t live with that diet of negativity anymore”.

I think mood gets into decisions well before it ever shows up in a number, because a worried team starts asking how to protect what it has, when the question that gets you somewhere new is what you’re building.

So when you sit down with next year’s plan, I’d look at which of your decisions are really about protecting, and whether one of them could be about building.

2. Reading the economy is your job now

On 3 November the Reserve Bank put the cash rate up to 4.85%, its second rise since the end of September.

It now expects inflation to stay high through much of 2027, and not to get back to the top of its target range until late in the year. It expects growth to slow further over the coming year.

In August I wrote about two of the country’s biggest banks, CBA and ANZ, reading the same numbers as the Reserve Bank and pointing in different directions.

When the forecasters you’d normally lean on can’t agree, reading the economy is down to whoever has to make the call, and that’s you, even though nobody’s going to ring and say so.

So I’d plan 2027 as a steady, careful year, with a low number, a high number and a plan that still works at both.

For each big move, I’d write down the sign that tells you to speed up, and the one that tells you to stop.

And it’s worth asking which forecast your plan is quietly built on, and what would tell you it’s wrong.

3. The person who trains is leaving first

My read is that machines and software now do a lot of the routine first-year work, and that work was how juniors learned the job. At the same time, I think cuts to middle management are thinning out the people who did the teaching.

That teaching rarely gets written into anyone’s job description, so it’s easy to miss when it goes.

My best read is that the gap shows up about three years later, and by then it’s hard to trace back to any one decision.

The trades have a squeeze of their own. In September I wrote that the number of people starting a trade fell 4.2% in the year to 31 December 2025, on NCVER’s figures, the third yearly fall in a row.

On a typical apprenticeship, someone who starts today would qualify around 2029 or 2030, and the tradespeople you’ll need then are being decided now.

Some roles may get easier to fill as unemployment rises, and the ABS had it at 4.6% in August, but I don’t expect that to fix the shortages in the trades.

I learned my own work by doing it, from about eight, mostly in the office of the family business, writing the invoices at night, and then in a leaflet business I started myself.

Plenty of people do have someone show them the ropes, though, so it’s worth asking who’s doing that for the next person coming into your business, and deciding now how you’ll train or find the people you’ll need in 2029.

4. Trust becomes something you can show

In September I wrote that reputation had become a currency, and anything that works as a currency ends up with fakes going around.

ASIC took down more than 19,400 scams in the 2025-26 financial year, as I wrote in that piece, and many of them used the faces and voices of well-known Australians.

From 31 March 2027, banks, telcos and digital platforms take on most of their new legal duties to prevent scams.

Those duties are theirs, but if you sell or bill through any of them, I’d expect a few more questions about who you are.

My best read is that by 2028, being able to show who you are, what you stand behind and who answers when something goes wrong will be part of what people buy from you.

So I’d pick the one thing you’d most like to be trusted for in 2028, and ask what has to be true by the end of 2027 for that to happen.

Finding your own: what’s already arriving

Those four are mine, and yours might be sitting in your diary or your inbox right now.

In August 2022 I wrote that the big changes are like “a ball under water” that “will eventually explode back to the surface”. I still look at a new year that way, by going looking for what’s already under the water and pushing up.

Chapter 5 of Before the Year Turns starts by swapping one question for another.

“So don’t ask ‘what’s going to happen in 2027?’ Nobody can truly answer that. Ask ‘what’s already started that hasn’t reached us yet?'”

It’s Worksheet 5 on page 40, and it takes about 20 minutes with a pen, your 2027 calendar and a few recent customer emails.

Here it is, free: download Worksheet 5 (two pages to print at home: the steps and the worksheet itself).

Then work through it like this.

1. What’s already dated? A contract ending, a lease, a rule starting, a big customer’s own changes, someone retiring.
2. Look through four windows. Your business (market, competitors, costs, suppliers), your customers, your people, your technology. What’s already moving in each?
3. Ask two questions at each window. What problem do customers have now that they didn’t a year ago? What’s started somewhere else that could arrive here?
4. Real, or just talk? If you can’t tell, jot it down anyway, with a note on what would settle it.
5. When will it land? Now (the next 12 months), next (one to two years) or after next (two to five).
6. Where and when did you see it? A sign from last week counts for more than one from three years ago.
7. What decision could it change? That’s what makes it worth keeping on the list.
8. Pick one. The one you’d most regret ignoring by next December.

If nothing comes to mind, have a chat with a customer about what’s changed for them this year, and then you can work out when it’s likely to reach you.

In the guide, Leah runs a made-up café with two shops. Her dated list has paid parking on the main street from March, her station shop lease decision by 31 March, and a big chain café opening in the station shopping centre in April.

The one she’d most regret ignoring is the chain at the station, which she first saw as a sign on the shopfront in August, and the decision it could change is the station shop’s hours and its lease.

The other 12 sheets, Leah’s café filled in front to back and my ten ripples for 2027 are all in Before the Year Turns, my year-end guide, for A$39.

Then test your big decisions against three possible years

A while ago I worked with a terrific Australian food and beverage company that could forecast its sales down to the carton, and then a new competitor changed the way people bought that whole category, and with all their forecasts in hand they were caught flat-footed.

You can’t see a competitor in last year’s numbers if they haven’t turned up yet, and that’s exactly what happened to them.

A lot of next year’s plans start from this year’s numbers with a bit added on, which makes them a plan for one year, the most likely one, when 2027 could turn out to be any of several.

So the next page I’d reach for is Worksheet 6B, Three possible years, on page 46. It takes about 15 minutes.

This one’s free too: download Worksheet 6B (the blank sheet, plus Leah’s filled in).

1. Write your two or three biggest decisions down the left. The lease, the new hire, the price rise, the big customer you’re chasing.
2. A year like this one. How does each decision go?
3. A tight year. Money’s short, costs are up and a big customer wobbles.
4. A year where the ground moves. A new competitor, a new rule or a new technology.
5. Go, adapt or wait. Write one of those in the last column for each decision.

As I put it in the guide, if a decision only works in one of them, “it’s a bet. That’s fine, as long as you know it’s a bet.”

Leah’s filled-in sheet is on page 73. Going card-only at both shops works in all three years, so she’ll go, after a trial at the station.

Renewing the station shop lease for five years looks fine in a year like this one and risky in the other two, so she’s going to ask for two years, with the option of two more.

And four-day weeks for two of her best people cost more to cover in a tight year, but she keeps both of them, so she’s trialling it from 1 February.

On the AI Business Flywheel podcast I put the whole idea this way: “It’s not prediction. It’s preparation.”

The sheets work whichever way the year goes, because they’re about what you’d do if it turned out tight or strange, so whichever way it goes, you’re better prepared to adapt.

Where to go from here

If you’d like to do the whole year this way, Before the Year Turns is A$39, with nine chapters, all 13 worksheets, Leah’s café filled in front to back, and all ten of my ripples for 2027 at the back, these four among them.

And if you’d like a copy for everyone on your team, with your organisation’s name inside every one, it’s all on the page for teams.

And if you’d like to talk the year through with me, I’m running a free online session on Thursday 19 November, 11 to 11.45 am AEDT, where we’ll go through these four, and whatever else is on your mind for next year, together. We’ll look back at what 2026 set off, then ahead to what 2027 is asking of you.

You can reserve your place here. If you can’t make it on the day, sign up anyway and I’ll send you the recording.

Those are your immediate futures, the things you could start on now, before the year turns.

The question I’m left with

I’d love to know which of your big decisions for 2027 only works if next year looks like this one, so tell me in the comments, or write back to me wherever you found this.

Choose forward.

If you’d like a short read every Tuesday on what’s coming and what it means for your work: welcome.morrismisel.com/join

P.S. If you still have an old list of what you thought this year would bring, I’d love to hear how it held up. Mine from 2016 was 3 for 3.

---

Morris Misel is a foresight strategist, keynote speaker and author. He works with organisations to interpret what’s changing and make better decisions about what comes next. Heard by more than a million people a year, on stage and in the media.

---

Questions people ask

What should businesses plan for in 2027?

Morris Misel’s four points for 2027 are a low public mood that lasts through the year, an economy where the forecasters disagree and the Reserve Bank expects inflation to stay high through much of 2027, a squeeze on the people who train juniors and on new apprentices, and trust becoming something customers ask you to show, with new scam-prevention duties for banks, telcos and digital platforms from 31 March 2027.

What is the funk?

It’s Morris Misel’s name for the low and gloomy mood the world has carried since COVID. Ipsos figures from September 2026 show 25% of people optimistic about the world, 36% about their country and 55% about themselves and their families. His best read is that we start climbing out of it towards the end of 2027, and that it takes the best part of 2028 to clear.

What did the Reserve Bank do in November 2026?

On 3 November 2026 it raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%. It said inflation is forecast to remain elevated through much of 2027 and not reach the top of the 2 to 3% target range until late 2027, and that growth is expected to slow further over the coming year.

When do the new scam-prevention duties start?

Most of the new legal duties for banks, telcos and digital platforms under the Scams Prevention Framework begin on 31 March 2027.

What is Worksheet 5, What’s already arriving?

It’s a 20-minute worksheet in Before the Year Turns. You list what’s already dated for 2027, look through four windows (the business, customers, people and technology), place each item in time, note where and when you saw it and the decision it could change, and finish with the one you’d most regret ignoring.

What is Worksheet 6B, Three possible years?

It’s a 15-minute worksheet in Before the Year Turns. You test your two or three biggest decisions against a year like this one, a tight year and a year where the ground moves, then mark each go, adapt or wait. A decision that only works in one of the three is a bet.

What is a ripple?

A ripple is what a change sets off. The first is easy to see, the second is the ripple of that ripple, and the third is what becomes possible or comes under threat.

Sources

Morris Misel, Looking back at 2015 and forward to 2016 trends, ABC Far North with Phil Staley, 7 December 2015.

Morris Misel, So how’d my 2016 predictions do?, 6PR with Chrissy Morrissy, 11 December 2016.

Morris Misel, 7 world altering meta trends for the next 7 years, RTHK Radio 3, 3 August 2022.

Morris Misel, The World Is in a Funk. It’s Not Permanent, and It’s Not Random., 4 August 2026.

Morris Misel, Same Data, Three Directions, 17 August 2026.

Morris Misel, The Class of 2030 Hasn’t Started, 14 September 2026 (NCVER figures).

Morris Misel, Reputation Was the Currency. Now It Can Be Forged., 21 September 2026 (ASIC figures).

Morris Misel, Some of 2027 Is Already Sitting in Your Diary, 5 October 2026.

Morris Misel, Most of Us Stop at the First Ripple, 19 October 2026.

Morris Misel, What does a futurist actually do?, 4 November 2026.

AI Business Flywheel, Episode 16, with Duncan Isaksen-Loxton and Joe Bonington, recorded 8 October 2026.

Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Decision 2026-30, 3 November 2026.

ASIC, Scams Prevention Framework, read 9 November 2026.

Ipsos Global Trends, 10th edition, 29 September 2026 (figures as cited in Before the Year Turns, page 83).

NAB, Monthly Business Survey, August 2026, 8 September 2026.

Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment, September 2026, via Trading Economics.

ABS, Unemployment rate rises to 4.6% in August, 2026.

NCVER apprentice and trainee figures to 31 December 2025, as cited in The Class of 2030 Hasn’t Started.

ASIC scam takedowns, 2025-26, as cited in Reputation Was the Currency. Now It Can Be Forged.

Morris Misel, Before the Year Turns, 2026: chapter 5 (page 37), Worksheet 5 (page 40), Worksheet 6B (page 46), Leah’s Worksheet 6B (page 73), The year ahead, in ripples (pages 83 to 95).