When we start thinking about next year, the first question is usually “so, what’s coming?” There’s a better one, and it’s one you can actually answer.

Back in July, Phil Whelan and I spent a morning on RTHK Radio 3 going over what the experts in 1976 thought 2026 would look like. The question I came away with was this: what’s already here that we haven’t fully noticed yet? You can answer that one today, because the clues are already out there.

It’s also the question at the heart of something I’m finishing now, Before the Year Turns, my year-end guide. It walks you back through your year, what worked and what didn’t, then looks ahead at the ripples coming your way, the ones you’ll be making next year’s decisions through. There are 13 worksheets, whether you’ve got an hour on your own, a week with your team, or a few days’ workshop. Every Monday this October I’m sharing a first glimpse from it.

It shows up a little at a time

The changes that reshape our work rarely arrive all at once. They turn up a few at a time, usually somewhere else first.

Back in 2012 I was on ABC radio talking about robots turning up on farms that could tell a weed from a plant and work around the clock. Farmers were interested for a plain reason: they couldn’t find enough people.

Fourteen years on, SwarmFarm Robotics in central Queensland has 200 of its self-driving robots working on Australian farms, and when the Clean Energy Finance Corporation invested last October it said they cut herbicide use by up to 95%.

The pressure came first, years before the machines. So when you look for what’s arriving in your world, look for the pressure: a job you can’t fill, a cost that keeps creeping up, the same customer gripe coming round again.

Some of it’s already in the diary

Part of next year already has dates on it. From 10 December, organisations covered by the Privacy Act have to say when a computer program makes decisions that significantly affect people. From 31 March 2027, banks, telcos and digital platforms take on new duties to stop scams.

Closer to home it’s a contract ending, a lease, a big customer changing course, someone retiring. Anything with a date is a decision you can make early, while it’s still a choice.

Some of it’s started somewhere else

In March, big batteries on the grid set the wholesale electricity price 46% of the time between 5 and 9 pm. A year earlier it was 16% (Modo Energy). It happened quietly, one battery at a time, and if energy’s a real cost for you, it’s already part of your 2027.

Expectations travel the same way. Customers compare you with their best experience anywhere, so a bank or an app may have already set the bar you’ll be measured against.

Some of it’s already inside your business

In June, PagerDuty surveyed 1,250 office workers in four countries. Two thirds had used AI tools at work they didn’t think were allowed. Put the tools aside for a moment: that’s people changing how they work well ahead of any plan. A new question customers keep asking, a workaround that’s quietly become normal, they’re all early signs, and the people closest to the work usually see them first.

The one you’d rather wave away

Years ago I told the heads of three big American bedding makers that beds would become wellness systems. Most smiled politely. One said, “Never.” Today you can buy a bed that tracks your sleep.

It’s harder to notice this kind of thing at the moment. We’re in a bit of a funk, and when we’re in survival mode we look hard at what’s right in front of us while the real change comes in from the side. The signal you’d most like to brush off is often the one worth a second look.

20 minutes with what’s arriving

Grab a pen and next year’s calendar.

1. Look through four windows: your business, your customers, your people, and technology. Jot down anything that’s already started, here or elsewhere, that could reach you in the next year or two.
2. Sort each into real now, emerging, or noise.
3. Circle the one you’d most regret ignoring this time next year. Then ask “and then what?” twice.

Over to you

What’s arriving in your world that you think more people should be paying attention to? Pop it in the comments. With your permission, I’ll include some readers’ thoughts in Before the Year Turns.

Next Monday: what no longer fits, and how to put it down before the break.

Before the Year Turns is nearly done. Join my Tuesday email and you’ll be first to hear when it’s ready.

Choose Forward.

Morris

P.S. Something else opens this week.

It’s called Choose Forward, and it starts with one question.

What’s next for you?

Bring a decision you’re weighing, or something you’ve noticed and can’t shake.

We’ll work it through together, talking or typing, whenever it suits you.

It’s your own room, and it remembers what you’ve told it. I’m in there with you.

The first members are founders, and they’ll shape what gets built next.

If that sounds like you, come and have a look.