COVID-19 – Which industries and jobs are safe & which aren’t
source: https://davidstaughton.com.au/impact-of-corona-crisis-industries-and-australian-economy/
Industries heavily impacted by the Co-Vid19 Crisis?
- Travel & Tourism – Airlines, Bookings, Entertainment, Hotels, Chinese Travellers, Luxury Goods, Transport
- Group Events & Activities – Conferences, Expos, Sports, Arts, Weddings, Venues, Gyms
- Hospitality & Small Group Activities – Pubs, Clubs, Casinos, Cafes, Bars, Restaurants
- Education – Universities, Schools, Childcare
- Personal Services Providers – Allied Medical, Dental, Nails, Hair, Beauty, Cosmetic Surgery, Tattoos
- Most Retailers and many traditional “face to face” Businesses
- All businesses and services directed to CLOSE DOWN by the Government
Businesses & Organisations that will probably continue operating during Corona Crisis? (least affected industries)
- OUTDOOR Industries like Farming, Infrastructure Construction, Building Services & Garden Maintenance,
- INDOOR Services Businesses that can Work from Home like Software Tech Businesses, Professional Services, Allied medical and other Office Workers
- ESSENTIAL Services needed for survival (see below)
- GOVERNMENT Services
These Industries will be LEAST Affected by the Corona Crisis downturn and their employees who continue to earn a salary make good potential target markets during the downturn
Crisis-Proof & Essential Industries?
- Government Funded Services – health, police, defence, welfare, aged care, disability, transport, environmental
- Utilities – Telco, Power (electricity/gas/solar), Water, Waste & Recycling
- Construction & Building Projects (beware a property downturn)
- Infrastructure Major Projects – Road, Rail, Ports, Airport, Aerospace? projects probably continuing or sped up
- Technology Software Businesses (now working from Home) – software development
- “Essentials” – Grocery, Bottle shops (Alcohol), Pharmacy, Dry Cleaners, Logistics
- Local manufacturers switching to essential goods manufacture – PPE, Sanitisers, Toilet paper etc
- Selected Mining and Resources businesses
Here is some more info on Government Services http://theconversation.com/government-spending-explained-in-10-charts-from-howard-to-turnbull-77158
Which Businesses will prosper, survive, struggle or die?
The Specific Business impacts of Corona Virus Crisis – The impact on business and the economy will depend on the duration of the crisis or closure – 3 months, 6 month, 9 months or 12 months and the number of “waves” of virus pandemic.
Many businesses may PIVOT or POSITION themselves to grow in a different area. e.g. Restaurants offering takeaway meals.
LIST of Businesses & Industries that will probably GROW during Co-Vid Crisis & economic downturn
- Online Stores & Online Commerce should do well
- Virtual Meetings and Conferencing – Online Virtual Training like zoom.us
- Working from Home (WFH) Services – Home Setup, Technology, Wellness, Management
- DIY Home Maintenance
- Tech tools & software to WFH – a hot category at Officeworks & JB HiFi
- Virtual Consulting – Doctors / medical services –
- Healthcare & Pharmaceutical Businesses
- Home Teaching & Schooling
- Cleaning & Sanitising Suppliers
- Advisors – Accountants, Wealth & Financial Advisers (via Virtual meetings)
- Grocery Stores and suppliers (more eating at home)
- Home Delivery services – groceries, Food, tech and Parcels
- Mortgage Brokers & Credit providers – new loans to administer and refinancing
- Big 4 Banks – Government Loans (depends if property prices crash)
- Stockbrokers
- Pawn Shops / Online Marketplaces
- Telcos and some Tech/App Services
- Home Streaming Movies – like Foxtel, Netflix, Stan etc (might be dropped to Low Res like Europe)
- Alcohol Sales (for Home Consumption)
- Crematoriums (for body disposal) – Funerals may be delayed like in Italy
- Virtual Real Estate and Property Sales
- Grocery / Food – Meat & Seafood?
- Mobile Phone Resellers and Repairers,
- Personal Trainers online & home fitness equipment
- Online Real Estate Agents – Virtual Tours & Sales
- Property Management and Body Corporate Services will be busy
- Online Art & Craft Hobby Business – learning a new artistic hobby and home school supplies
- Book Sellers & Book Publishers (Many people writing books)
- Logistics – Transport, Warehousing
- Employment Services – Career Coaching and Welfare
- Bike Shops – repair and alternative to car.
- Online Payments
- Bargain and Discount Stores – budget conscious buyers
- Pet Stores (online)
Business
that will GROW later in the Post-Crisis Downturn
& eventual Recovery
- Removalists & Relocations (moving closed Shops and residences)
- Repair & Maintenance Services – fixing things don’t buy it
- Robotics and Drones
- Auto Car repairing (no new ones)
- Funeral Events
- Lipstick and Beauty Supplies
- Flowers and Chocolates
- Insolvency / liquidation
- Repossession
- Debt Collection
- Delivery services
- Pay Day lending?
Businesses that will probably SLOW during the CRISIS – Especially during the Shutdown
- Allied Health – Physio / Chiropractic (Virtual consults only)
- Dentists
- Hairdressers & Barbers
- Nails Shops & Beauty Salons
- Surgeons & Private Specialists – Elective Surgery on hold
- Childcare Centres (attendance drop)
- Education – Universities and Schools
- Transport – Cars and Petrol Stations
- Utilities – less Power & Water being used?
- Less Waste & Recycling needed from commercial premises and manufacturing
- Mining & Resources dependent on commodity prices
- Premium Meat and Seafood for Export (to Asia?)
Businesses that will DECLINE During and After the Co-Vid Crisis
- MOST Aspirational and Discretionary Products and Services
- Hospitality Industry – Cafes & Bars
- Cosmetic Surgery and procedures like Fillers and Anti-Wrinkle injections
- Automotive – Sales of New Cars & Luxury Cars – Motor Vehicle Dealers
- Boating and Nautical Sales
- Education of Chinese students
- Solar Panel Installers
- Home Improvements – Pools and Spas
- Home Furnishing
- Restaurants – especially high-end restaurants
- Live Conferences, Events and Speakers (moving to Virtual and Hybrid Events)
Businesses & Industries that face a MAJOR DECLINE During the Crisis
BEACH Industries Hardest Hit
- Booking & Travel Agents
- Entertainment & Live Events – Sports, Conferences, Conventions, Caterers, Expos, Arts
- Airlines – Airline Travel
- Cruise Ships & Casinos
- Hotels, Resorts & Accommodation
As well as
- Tourism Attractions and Tours
- Conference Speakers, Conference organisers (PCOs), Bureaus, Expo Hire and construction
- Venues – Weddings & Events
- Retail Fashion Stores
- Hire cars and equipment
- Newsagents & Gift Shops
- Live Events
- Contact Sports and Stadiums
- Cinemas and Markets
- Massage Parlours, Escorts and Adult Clubs
- Private School Fees
- Taxis
- Gyms
- ALL Aspirational Fun Stuff – Jet ski, Harleys, Spas, Luxury Cars
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What was the difference between COVID temporary shock and structural disruption?
Temporary shock meant the business model was sound but demand had collapsed — it would recover when restrictions lifted. Structural disruption meant the crisis had accelerated a change that was coming regardless, making the pre-COVID model unviable. Hospitality faced temporary shock; travel and office-based work faced structural disruption.
Q: Which industries faced genuine structural disruption from COVID?
Business travel, commercial real estate for office use, CBD retail, print media, and traditional higher education delivery all faced structural disruption — not just cyclical demand reduction. These were industries already under pressure from digital substitution; COVID removed the remaining inertia that was slowing the transition.
Q: How should organisations distinguish between waiting and adapting?
By asking whether their pre-COVID model would still be viable if behaviour did not return to exactly how it was. For most organisations, some degree of permanent change in customer behaviour was already visible within months. The organisations that waited for full restoration rather than adapting to a new normal lost time they did not recover.
Q: Can Morris Misel speak about industry resilience and navigating structural disruption?
Yes. For keynotes on strategic resilience and disruption management, visit morrismisel.com/event-organisers.
source: https://davidstaughton.com.au/impact-of-corona-crisis-industries-and-australian-economy/ Industries heavily impacted by the Co-Vid19 Crisis? Travel & Tourism Airlines, Bookings, Entertainment, Hotels, Chinese Travellers, Luxury Goods, Transport Group Events & Activities .
The shift around COVID-19 Which industries and jobs are safe & which is not purely structural. It changes what capabilities organisations value, how people find meaning in their roles, and what conditions make good work possible. Leaders who understand this early retain the talent they need and build cultures that attract it.
The most important question is not whether COVID-19 Which industries and jobs are safe & which will matter, but how quickly it will matter in your specific context. Leaders benefit most from mapping the ripple effects early — not just the direct impact but the second and third-order consequences that arrive later and hit harder. That is the practical work of foresight.
