Pushmi-Pullyu #futurecars | ABC Wide Bay
Hover-boards and flying cars are the two things I get asked about everyday and although they have sort of been invented they are still waiting for their time and opportunity, but what is not waiting is the next enormous evolution in motor vehicles.
David Dowsett of ABC Wide Bay and I in our regular segment chatted about what’s just down the road for our humble motor vehicle including the current rise of semi autonomous cars now available with added features like brake assist, self parking, heads up displays, radars, GPS, Bluetooth connectivity and others all of which we take for granted, but have only been available in our cars for 10 years or less.
The next step in our march to fully autonomous cars, is a bit like Doctor Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu, a car that you can drive, or it can drive you.
This transportation evolution is being heralded by every car manufacturer on the planet as well as some new disruptive non car manufacturers like Google, Tesla and Apple, with an expectation that today’s prototype will be the highways reality within 10 years.
These new cars will be software centric, have constantly moving dynamic displays instead of fixed buttons that anticipate what you need and offer to you before you know you need it and the ability to upgrade augment and change the virtual interior of the car, its performance and function by software add-ons, updates, patches and fixes.
In this brave new world of machine driving will we need a drivers licence? Who will be responsible for accidents? Who will lose points for bad driving and who will ultimately be responsible for what happens inside and outside the car?
Have a listen to the segment now and then share your thoughts on tomorrow’s driving landscape…
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What are the competing forces pushing and pulling the future of personal transport?
The forces pulling transport toward autonomous, electric, and shared mobility include: the dramatic cost reduction in battery technology making electric vehicles progressively more competitive; the safety case for autonomous driving (human error causes 90%+ of road accidents, making automation a compelling safety argument); the urban congestion and parking economics pushing cities toward shared and lower-ownership mobility models; and the growing regulatory pressure around emissions in major markets. The forces pushing back include: the century-long infrastructure investment in roads, fuel supply, and vehicle service that is designed for the current system; the deep cultural and identity attachment to personal vehicle ownership in many markets; the geographic realities of dispersed populations that make shared mobility uneconomical outside dense urban areas; and the pace at which autonomous capability can be reliably deployed across the full complexity of real-world driving conditions.
Q: What does the Pushmi-Pullyu metaphor reveal about how to think about complex technology transitions?
The Pushmi-Pullyu metaphor — the two-headed animal from Doctor Dolittle — captures something important about technology transitions that linear adoption curve models miss: the forces for and against change are both real and both powerful; the transition is not a smooth progression but a period of genuine tension in which the direction and pace are contested; and the outcome is determined not just by the technology capability but by the resolution of the contest between the forces for and against adoption. Understanding a technology transition requires identifying and taking seriously both the adoption forces and the resistance forces — not assuming that superior technology inevitably wins on the expected timeline. The history of technology transitions is full of superior technologies that took decades longer than expected to displace established systems because the resistance forces were underestimated.
Q: What is the realistic timeline for the transformation of the Australian personal transport system?
The realistic timeline for Australian personal transport transformation is measured in decades rather than years: the electric vehicle transition is well underway but the full fleet replacement to electric will take 15-20 years from now even under optimistic scenarios; autonomous capability in consumer vehicles is advancing but full autonomy across the complexity of Australian road conditions and regulatory environments is a 10-15 year horizon; and the shared mobility shift is meaningful in dense urban areas but structural vehicle ownership in suburban and regional Australia will persist for the foreseeable future. The transformation will happen — the forces pulling toward it are structural and compounding — but the Pushmi-Pullyu tension will produce a longer and more contested transition than the optimistic technology predictions of 2015 suggested.
Q: How can I book Morris Misel for a transport futures, technology transitions, or strategic foresight keynote?
Contact the team at morrismisel.com/event-organisers.
Hover-boards and flying cars are the two things I get asked about everyday and although they have sort of been invented they are still waiting for their time and opportunity, but what is not waiting is the next enormous evolution in motor vehicles. David Dowsett of ABC Wide Bay a.
The window between a signal arriving and it demanding a response is shortening. Pushmi-Pullyu #futurecars is already shaping strategy conversations in forward-looking organisations. Treating it as a future concern rather than a present one builds a preparedness gap that will have to be closed under pressure.
The most important question is not whether Pushmi-Pullyu #futurecars will matter, but how quickly it will matter in your specific context. Leaders benefit most from mapping the ripple effects early — not just the direct impact but the second and third-order consequences that arrive later and hit harder. That is the practical work of foresight.
