Hilton Barbour has spent the past while interviewing people on LinkedIn about scenario planning and culture. Underneath every one of those chats sits the question that started his series: why do so many organisations still struggle to invest in foresight? He asked me in on 14 October, time zones and all, and his write-up went live today.

You can read the whole thing on LinkedIn: Foresight and Organizational Culture: How the Past Impacts The Future.

Hilton came at the future through culture, and I like starting there too, since the people who live with the trends are the ones who decide what happens next. He also recorded our hour and a half on video and sent it over, so I’ve dropped a few of the moments in below, in case you’d rather hear me say it than read it.

Their dream

Hilton asked about a leader coming round to the work, and I changed one word in his question, because I don’t create the future for anybody. They do. As I said to him, “I don’t want them to buy into my dream, they have to buy into their dream.”

That comes from where I started. I told Hilton I come from a humanistic background, and I believe organisations are made up of people who make the decisions. Culture, to me, is “just a subtotal of the way that humans within it feel, act, and want to behave.” It isn’t easy to change, and it takes a great deal of work, especially when it’s spread across a lot of people.

The story you tell yourself

For 15 years or more I volunteered as a crisis counsellor and a prison chaplain, in prisons and on the streets. What I saw over and over was people anchoring themselves to a story about who they are. It’s human, and it’s how we survive, but “it’s really difficult to walk away from the story you tell yourself.”

Organisations do the same thing, and that’s where PTFA comes from: past trauma, future anxiety. The past trauma might be a bet that failed, or money that went nowhere, or a CEO everybody still talks about.

The future anxiety is the same thing in reverse, that quiet worry about what a new decision might do to your job and who you’ll be at work. Neither one shows up on a spreadsheet, and both are sitting in the room.

In those rooms I had no right to tell anyone their story no longer served them, because it wasn’t my life. What I could do was nudge them into seeing that some of what they were doing wasn’t working for them. A company is much the same. As an outsider I can often see what they can’t, because I haven’t lived through all the small steps that got them there.

Misstep

Hilton talked about people being allowed to try things without being penalised for a mistake. He’d just said that if you’re not willing to make a few mistakes, mistakes will find you, and I offered him a different word. “To me, it’s a misstep that we might make, which means it’s recoverable, totally recoverable.”

A mistake comes with blame attached, and a misstep you just get up from, so people have a go.

In a big, spread out organisation the words people use about trying something new can decide whether anybody tries it at all, so I play with them a lot.

Wisdom stays with us

When we got to AI, I walked Hilton through data, knowledge, intellect and wisdom. The internet stores the data, search brings the knowledge together, and AI shapes it to your circumstances, which I’d call intellect, while wisdom is the bit I want kept human, the ability to look at all of that and call it right or wrong.

I won’t call it intelligence, because I’d rather that word stayed with human intent and human action. And I don’t think intellect can look around corners yet, so that’s where wisdom comes in.

Hilton came straight back with his line about fruit: knowledge is knowing it’s a fruit, and wisdom is knowing you don’t put it in a fruit salad. I’ll be borrowing that one, with credit.

I also told him AI is the one technology I’ve lived through that makes me wish I could go back to the beginning of my practice, because of what I can build with it now that I could only dream about then.

Preparation, not prediction

I can’t promise anybody a guaranteed future, so what I do is work with people on the ripples that are already on their way.

If somebody comes along and tries to sell you a future, I’d say they’re selling you snake oil, though I don’t mean that against anybody in this industry.

If somebody tells you they can get you to a point in time with absolute certainty, I’d love to meet them, because I never have.

I’d love a cast-iron guarantee myself before I spend a cent with anybody, and I can’t give you one. What I can do is explore what’s ahead with you, and I’m sure it will make a difference, but I can’t tell you what that difference will be.

With clients I’ll usually get them to pick three things to start on, nothing big, and once they’ve done them they’ve proved to themselves they can move.

Thanks, Hilton, I had a great time, and you made me work for a few of those answers. Your series has plenty more of these, and our chat is the one I was in.

Choose forward.

P.S. If you’d like to think through your own year ahead with a pen and a coffee, there’s the guide, and it’s in paperback on Amazon too. If you’d rather talk it through, there’s Mo.

And if you’d like a short read from me every Tuesday, it’s free to join.

---

Morris Misel is a foresight strategist, keynote speaker, and trusted adviser. He works with organisations to interpret what’s changing and make better decisions about what comes next. Heard by more than a million people a year on stage and in the media.

---

Questions people ask

What is PTFA?

PTFA stands for past trauma, future anxiety. The past trauma might be a bet that failed, money that went nowhere, or a CEO everybody still talks about. The future anxiety is the quiet worry about what a new decision might do to your job and who you’ll be at work. Neither one shows up on a spreadsheet, and both are sitting in the room.

Why does organisational culture matter for foresight?

Morris Misel sees organisations as people who make the decisions, and culture as “just a subtotal of the way that humans within it feel, act, and want to behave.” The people who live with the trends decide what happens next, so leaders have to buy into their own dream, not the futurist’s.

Why do people and organisations struggle to change?

People anchor themselves to a story about who they are, and “it’s really difficult to walk away from the story you tell yourself.” Organisations do the same. An outsider can often see what they can’t, because they haven’t lived through all the small steps that got them there.

What is the difference between a mistake and a misstep?

A mistake comes with blame attached. A misstep is recoverable, totally recoverable, so you just get up from it, and people have a go. The words people use about trying something new can decide whether anybody tries it at all.

Can a futurist predict the future?

Morris Misel can’t promise anybody a guaranteed future. His work is preparation, not prediction: working with people on the ripples already on their way. Anyone who says they can get you to a point in time with absolute certainty is, in his words, selling snake oil.

Where does wisdom fit alongside AI?

Morris walks through data, knowledge, intellect and wisdom. The internet stores the data, search brings the knowledge together, and AI shapes it to your circumstances, which he calls intellect. Wisdom, the ability to look at all of that and call it right or wrong, is the part he wants kept human.

Where should an organisation start?

Pick three things to start on, nothing big. Once they’re done, you’ve proved to yourself you can move.

Sources

Hilton Barbour, Foresight and Organizational Culture: How the Past Impacts The Future, LinkedIn, 27 October 2026.

Hilton Barbour in conversation with Morris Misel on scenario planning and culture, video recording, 14 October 2026.

Images: Hilton Barbour, made for the interview and used with thanks.